New stat request: OBPE

[merlinm]

On base percentage including errors (and dropped 3rd strike). We have some players that are very fast and are able to steal first a lot and are not getting any credit for it by the statistics. They are also able to beat the throw in the infield when it's not fielded clean where other players would get thrown out. What I'm doing now is manually adjusting ROE after the game is over which is kind of a pain.

I know the MLB does not score 3rd strike steals for OBP (which is crazy).

[merlinm]

Ah, there is already OBPE. This would be OBPE2 the, basically the same except for 3rd strikes being counted.

[PetroGuy]

Here is an earlier thread on this issue:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=9570&p=41198&hilit=obpe#p41198

Just out of curiosity, why do you think it is crazy MLB does not include advancing to first via a wild pitch or passed ball in HBP? These are not steals and at most levels of baseball are rarely because of the batter/runner's speed. They are due to misplays by the pitcher or catcher.

[merlinm]

Here is an earlier thread on this issue:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=9570&p=41198&hilit=obpe#p41198

Just out of curiosity, why do you think it is crazy MLB does not include advancing to first via a wild pitch or passed ball in HBP? These are not steals and at most levels of baseball are rarely because of the batter/runner's speed. They are due to misplays by the pitcher or catcher.

Some batters are much faster than others. This puts pressure on the catcher and can force a tough throw into an error. So batter presence of mind and skill definitely plays.

[PetroGuy]

OK. I just can't recall ever seeing an MLB game where a B/R advanced to 1st due to speed forcing the issue. It has always been the ball getting so far away from the catcher forcing an inaccurate throw. Either way, I've never seen enough instances to make anything close to statistical significance from this issue.

[OhioTex]

A robust article on reach on error .. By very credible source. Retrosheet.com
http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/RuaneT/error_art.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;"

Many interesting points but does consider speed a significant factor to ROE tendency .. Slower players appear on bottom of list .. Faster players top of list


Also raises the notion of including D3S (PB and WP) reaches in ROE or not but does not seem to prove if statistically significant

[OhioTex]

Ah, there is already OBPE. This would be OBPE2 the, basically the same except for 3rd strikes being counted.

Some more research would be appropriate to see if a credible nameing standard or use already exists for this "expanded" OBP w includes not only reach on error but also reach on drop 3rd strike and pass ball. .. Perhaps call it OBPE3... As it includes drop3 strikes and would be a third OBP variation (OBP, OBPE, OBPE3).. But recall it still does not include all reaches of first base.. E.g fielders choice, catcher interference ...